Memo to My Fellow Hebrews: Hold the Hubris
Savor the success over Iran, but don't get cocky. Tomorrow we go again.
As we Israelis bask in our glorious strategic victory and resume regular programming for hubris, here are a couple of humble observations re our success vs Iran last night:
Don't. Don't fall for the razzle-dazzle hype of fighter jets, rocket interceptors, and Jewish Space Lasers. Yes, our air defense systems and brave pilots did their jobs. Our investments in science and military industries paid off. Good job indeed. But our success was a stage-managed team effort led by the Pentagon.
Israel was 'set up for success' by the adults in the room (incidentally, not the people what ordered the hit on the Quds general on April Fool's Day). Not that he didn't deserve to die, but it would have been better to have informed our Board about it first. Surprises are for our enemies not our Boards. 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇯🇴🇪🇬🇦🇪🇸🇦 Trust us even less now. This was a fire drill. They pulled our asses out of the fire this time, but their faith in our trajectory is close to depleted. They might resign. Even worse, the might sell us out to Private Equity.
Notwithstanding the skill and hi-tech in knocking flying bombs out the sky, a 99% success rate is like a Putin election: no other outcome was possible. Iran didn't just telegraph their attack, they made a deck, sent out an all-team Slack, and followed up with an email. Everyone was synced, on the same page, and circled back with. They made sure we knew what was coming, when it was coming, where it was coming from, and where it was headed.
They even went the extra mile just in case we were OOO and staggered their attack like a well organized half-day conference: first the canapés (slow drones over friendly airspace), keynote speech (ballistic missiles at a strategic airbase), and then a fireside chat (cruise missiles over al Quds). Each flying bomb with its own velocity, altitude, and direction. This wasn't exactly Top Gun. It was more like shooting fish in a barrel.
The Iranians are not "disappointed" with the result of their attack. They played this to perfection. Really, Kudos to the Quds Force. They've managed to save their face without getting their head blown off, so to speak. That means they get to keep their eyes, which are kept on the nuclear ball, (getting that ball over the line is 2024 KPI #1). If they keep this up, they could get a promotion to Nuclear C-Suite.
Next time-- if/when there is a next time -- could be a different ballgame entirely. Last night was rough. One of the roughest; but not as rough as the nights of Oct 7/8. Quite a few Israelis did manage to fall asleep in front of the TV news last night, somewhere between 02:30-05:30. Bad sleep, but even bad sleep is better than no sleep, right? Are we sleepwalking into something too terrifying to think about? Should we be losing more sleep over our direction of travel?
With all due respect to the Quds Force --Sun Tzu says respect your enemy-we are currently struggling to put out 3 raging fires. The lid on The West Bank/Judea and Samaria/Palestinian Territories [[whatever u call it]] is blowing off. We can't keep that lid on any longer. Not even with half the army there. Northern Israel is dying as a viable place to live. "Amalek" still lives and breathes in Gaza. By all means enjoy the 99% fireworks, but don't forget we're only 1% on the other 3 fires.
Maybe we need a referendum on the hostages: what price, if any, are we as "the people" prepared to pay to ransom "our people" from the wicked enemy ? There is no consensus on this. We need to decide, next time it could be us. Maybe we need to take this decision as a people. Maybe it's too big for the Kitchen Cabinet (do they even eat together)? The Recessionist Knesset is in recess. We need to decide: Do we walk in the shoes of the hostages' families (#BringThemHomeNow), or do we push on to Rafah and Total Victory?
So savor this moment. Feel proud of your armed forces. Feel grateful. Feel a little bit of that cosy confidence you lost on Oct 7 come back in. But don't get cocky. Tomorrow we go again.